Under the hood
Seven layers turn live exchange data into one call you can read in a glance.
- 01
Multi-venue fusion
A weighted-median composite across 4+ live exchanges. Stale or outlier feeds are rejected automatically.
- 02
Index calibration
Self-aligns to Kalshi’s CF Benchmarks settlement index every window.
- 03
Volatility core
Per-second EWMA variance.
- 04
Momentum regression
Least-squares trend fits across 1-, 3- and 6-minute horizons.
- 05
Order-flow microstructure
Taker imbalance, volume spikes and order-book depth pressure.
- 06
Probability blend
Projects the final-minute settlement average and fuses model odds with Kalshi’s market-implied price.
- 07
Flip-risk & settlement model
Estimates how likely the call is to flip before the window settles.
Output
One live call per market: UP or DOWN, with confidence, flip risk and the reasoning in plain English.
- 2×/sec price refresh
- 4 Hz recompute
- Sub-100ms venue latency
- 10-sec reasoning pulse
- Kalshi-calibrated
- Self-scoring ledger
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Here’s what each part of the call means.
- UP / DOWN
- Which way the window is likely to resolve.
- BUY / HOLD / SELL
- The action call.
- Resolution %
- How confident the read is.
- Flip risk
- How likely the call is to flip before close.
- Win rate
- Its real track record, scored against Kalshi’s official results — not faked.
See the engine in action.
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